Prelude to a Depression

More charts tonight!

Before our market takes another leg down later this year,
I want to walk you through both bears and illustrate how they match.
Fully analyze them.

We start here with the peak of the bubbles,
then the initial drop off the top.

1928-1929:
2003-2007:
First, just looking at the charts,
you should notice they are almost identical.

You can't see it on the 1928 chart,
but there was a 15% crash in 1 week in Dec. 1928 (the chart starts after that).
From there, the Dow regained all of its losses that month,
then traded in a range between 300-325 for Jan-May 1929.
This established support.

You also can't see it on the 2000's chart,
but I'm sure we all remember the 2000-2003 recession (chart starts after that).
From there, the Dow regained most of its losses that next year,
then traded in a range for 2004-2006.
This established support.

Eventually, both markets broke out of their range to the upside,
and made their final push to the top.

Once liquidity dried up in financial markets,
the bear markets began with declines back to the indicated support.

The next post in this series will begin analyzing the declines.

First Charts

First crude charts I can put up tonight, just to emphasize where we are.

2007-2010:

1929-1930:

1. After the crashes, both bottoms form inverse head and shoulders.

2. Along the inverse RS, both markets form an aborted h&s.

(neckline at the 23.6% fib retrace)

3. Both markets then put in a much bigger head and shoulders top.

4. The top came upon reaching the technical target of the inverse h&s.

Admin Notes:

I'm analyzing the DJIA on this blog because:

1. more of the public pays attention to it

2. can compare directly to the 1929-1933 bear market

I will occasionally add in S&P 500 targets and charts as well,

but when I don't, I assume anyone interested can figure them out.

Finally:

Look forward to stage-by-stage analysis of the bear markets!

Both technical and in general terms ...

And so it begins ...

First, welcome.

This blog will track our current bear market as it follows the one from 1929-1933.
Yes, the one that started with the Crash of 1929 and ushered in the Great Depression.

Our market is an exact match.

Unfortunately, that means we are heading for an even worse economic collapse.
30 straight years of credit bubble after credit bubble will do that to you.

The Millennial Depression cannot be avoided, but we can prepare for what is to come.

Follow here as I lead you through the ups and downs of the stock market.
The final target is (gulp) below Dow 1,000 ...