First crude charts I can put up tonight, just to emphasize where we are.
2007-2010:
1929-1930:
1. After the crashes, both bottoms form inverse head and shoulders.
2. Along the inverse RS, both markets form an aborted h&s.
(neckline at the 23.6% fib retrace)
3. Both markets then put in a much bigger head and shoulders top.
4. The top came upon reaching the technical target of the inverse h&s.
Admin Notes:
I'm analyzing the DJIA on this blog because:
1. more of the public pays attention to it
2. can compare directly to the 1929-1933 bear market
I will occasionally add in S&P 500 targets and charts as well,
but when I don't, I assume anyone interested can figure them out.
Finally:
Look forward to stage-by-stage analysis of the bear markets!
Both technical and in general terms ...
How do you account for time?
ReplyDeleteOur market is much larger, more interconnected, and more global than the 1929-1933 market.
ReplyDeleteSo basically, it took us from Oct. '07 - March '08 to complete the same move it took only 1 month to do in roughly Sept. '29.
You can see that the 1930 bear market rally lasted 5 months. Ours lasted 13.5 months. But we will still complete the large h&s formation taking us back to a double dip.
Even worse, that bear market lasted less than 3-4 years, I do not see ours ending until 2019-2020.
We will complete the same price moves, but it will take much longer.